Low expections

The Sports Network's I-AA writer, Matt Dougherty, has handicapped the conferences and predicted the 2006 playoff field, all the way down the title game in Chattanooga (he predicts an Appalachian State repeat with a victory over Cal-Poly). He's also ranked the 12 I-AA conferences. The OVC comes in at seventh, just behind the fifth-ranked Southern Conference and the #6 Southland.

In the Ohio Valley section, Dougherty begins by saying three league teams are capable of making it into the playoffs - Eastern Illinois, Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville State. He then proceeds to tell us EKU will and the others won't. "The nonconference games will keep Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State from advancing to the playoffs," Matt says. Meanwhile, the Colonels "have the schedule to get it done."

For the record, here are the non-conferernce games for each team.
EKU: Cincinatti, Western Kentucky, Western Carolina
EIU: Illinois, Indiana State, Illinois State, Hawaii
JSU: Furman, Mississippi State, Chattanooga

Matt apparently is predicting the Panthers and Gamecocks won't be able to hang with their non-con opponents, while the Colonels are expected to have little trouble. That's an interesting assumption. If you take losses to the I-A opponents as a given (with Cincy and the Fighting Illini, that's debateable), EIU definitely falls a game behind. Western Carolina, Indiana State and Chattanooga all are beatable, with UTC probably the toughest of those three. Illinois State is expected to be strong, Furman has their annual preseason top-5 spot locked up, and Western Kentucky is never a slouch, especially when playing Eastern. We'll have to see how it plays out.

Of course, Matt's prediction of EKU as OVC champs also assumes they'll be able to survive the games against EIU and JSU. That's another big assumption.

Oh, and as for the Colonels in the playoffs: Matt says they draw a visit to Appalachain State in the first round, losing 31-24.